THE ELECTRICAL GRID

The first oil well I saw on my trip to Williston was just west of Stanley ND, 80 miles east of Williston. It was flaring off the natural gas. Energy is being consumed to pollute.

All but one oil well location was capturing the natural gas. It was located just east of Williston. A compression ignition CAT engine with a generator, was connected to the well using the natural gas as a fuel. In 2008 the plan was to capture all of the natural gas and use it to make electricity. Combined with wind and coal energy, North Dakota now has a electrical surplus. The Great Recession further amplified the energy surplus.

Another factor is the changing electrical demand. Efficiency programs inspired by global warming concerns are being implemented. As an example, five years ago the lighting in my office was 300 watts. Today the lumens are the same with only 78 watts. In the rest of our house incandescent are being replaced with CFL bulbs that use sixty percent less electricity. This is happening in many homes. We are using less electricity per household.

It is hard to find numbers on electrical production but electrical power is traded as a commodity. Therefore it is easy to see what electricity costs are in different area’s. Base load price is six to eight cents on both coasts and one cent in North Dakota. Peak load prices are as high as twenty-five cents and more.

Why isn’t North Dakota electrical power shipped east or west? Infrastructure! There are five grid areas in the United Stated not connected. A surplus of Electrical energy cannot be shipped across country. There is no incentive for more energy production in North Dakota if it cannot be sold at a profit. Therefore natural gas is flared and energy is wasted and only pollutes.

The solution is technically simple and but politically complex. At the 5^th Annual North Energy a typical United States grid map was shown. The question from the floor was why wasn’t this implemented. The answer given was “no one is in charge.” This is an over simplification of the problem. A better answer is many are in charge, with personal agenda’s, and when a leader that emerges they are immediately politically and personally persecuted. The leaders of this persecution are people like Koch Brothers, Peabody Coal, Harold Hamm of Continental Industries and many others.

The benefits of a National Grid are many and will be the topic of next Blog.

The solution? The next time we vote look up the monetary contribution received by a candidate. And if received by a energy company you could have identified a politician who is owned by that energy company.

THE 5TH ANNUAL NORTH DAKOTA ENERGY EXPO

I had attended the Third Annual North Dakota Energy Expo and now the Fifth Annual North Dakota Energy Expo. My interest in energy goes back to my days as Plant Engineer at 3M Hutchinson, where I was able to reduce energy consumption by nearly fifty percent. That was some forty years ago! That interest in energy conservation was carried through my farming career where I promoted the production and use of ethanol.

Most energy conferences are about a specific form of energy, such as, solar, wind, biomass, coal, gas and oil. The ND Energy Expo is about all. This year we also heard about clean coal technologies at Washburn.

This year the Expo was held at Bismarck State College in an unfinished building called “National Energy Center of Excellence” with a panoramic view of the Missouri River. While the sun made PP presentations fade the view was spectacular and a photo through the window does not due it justice. This center will be finished this year.

I will start my report on the conference by defining two words used often in the presentations: “play” and “fracking”. “Play” defines an area in an oilfield where there is a lot of activity. “Fracking” is a method used to facilitate oil removal.

The Expo started out with opening remarks by the governor of ND (Dalrymple-R), and the two Senators (Conrad-D and Hoeven-R). While all energy produced in North Dakota was mentioned it was clear that the conference emphasis would be about oil production. All three politicians emphasized cooperation on policy issues between parties, contrasting Washington DC. Hoeven gave the best speech with the exception of the comments about the Keystone pipeline project. His comments were on the Keystone pipeline was identical to other comments and speeches I have heard on the subject. It was obviously handed to him by the Keystone project lobbyist. He even neglected to draw any benefit to North Dakota.

The two most interesting comments on opening remarks was that in the last decade of development of the Bakken oil play, there were 6000 oil wells in 2008, and now, there are 10,000. Further expansion rate will depend on infrastructure and available people. The people was the second comment, it is predicted North Dakota population will double. While numbers become vague at this point, it takes three to five people to support one production worker. Needs to be filled are teachers, doctors, retail store workers and, of course bar tenders.

Dr. Steven Koonin, Under Secretary of Science U. S. Department of Science, was the first keynote speaker. He discussed the affect the Bakken oil will have on US oil imports. He said oil imports have been reduced from 60% to 50% and that the oil from ND would have further impact. He also alluded to the fact energy use efficiency was increasing. For those not versed in the second law of thermodynamic, it is a fact that today, energy used to do useful work from oil, is only 10% taken from wellhead to use in the automotive engine. But that is changing! Transporting one person in a Prius versus a Suburban is at least twice as efficient. As more efficient cars are built less oil will be required per capita for transportation.

The next session was on people resources. I will comment on two Panelists. The first was Jan Morrison, focusing on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) education in ND. She discussed the need for technically oil industry workers needed in the oil industry. She said most new technical workers would be from outstate ND. She made it clear ND students had great opportunities in science and math fields.

The next panelist Mellisa Blake was, who was mayor of Wood Buffalo, Alberta. Wood Buffalo is the near the oil sands of Alberta. Wood Buffalo is about 1500 miles North of Williston. She gave a picture of Williston in a few years. The focus of her speech was on development of infrastructure from education, transportation, to health care. One example she used illustrated problem of rapid population growth. For employees to get to work, was an hour and a half. Without traffic it was twenty minutes. They built an extra lane for bus travel only. As people started taking buses to work, travel time on the road was reduced to less than an hour. She used another example of housing prices. A $240,000 house in southern Alberta, an identical house in Wood Buffalo would cost $720,000. As she told this story there was a similar story in the Bismarck Tribune of a retired school teach in Williston, who could no longer afford her apartment when the rent was raised from $720 a month to $2200 per month.

A three member panel gave a presentation on fracturing. The first speaker was an expert in environmental rule making and a representative from Halliburton explained how environmental sensitive the were they were in the fracking process. The final presentation on fracking was by Kathleen Neset who is President of Neset Consulting service. She gave elegant presentation on the geology formation of the Bakken Basin and how fracking is used.

The next presentation was an environmental presentational on the Keystone pipe line benefits. I’ve heard this speech before and the message is the same: (The US pollutes a lot and Canada should be allowed to pollute a little.) Fact is, Canadian oil sand is not environmental desirable because of the extraction process excess use of energy and transportation fuel yield per barrel is very low. The Keystone project is primary reason I attended this conference. What I heard was a repeat of a lobbyist scribe.

The closing session on Monday was about the financing energy development in North Dakota. The most profound statement made was that new financing was difficult for new energy projects, other than oil, because North Dakota has an energy surplus. If changes were not made the biggest surplus would be in electrical energy. In the opening remarks on Monday, several comments were made about the lack of a comprehensive plan to connect the electrical grid east to west coast.

The electrical grid problem has been a subject of presentations and conversation at energy meetings for the last decade. Solutions opposed by many special interest group and no one is in charge. At the federal it is between DOE and Commerce. As I write this blog, an article appears in the Minneapolis Star Tribune (Sunday, November 20th) about Indiana blocking the transmission of western wind power into Indiana.

On the last day the Expo, focus was on environment. A paragraph would not do justice with this topic so I will write a follow up Blog.

A comparison of the fifth North Dakota Energy Expo to the to the Third North Dakota Energy was a comparison of what might happen to what is happening. The Third conference and previous was sponsored by now retired Senator Dorgan. Senator Hoevan, then Governor of North did not attend. The now recognized impact of energy production in North Dakota has now made this a must attend for politicians.

I am planning to attend sixth Annual North Dakota Energy Expo.

Visiting Williston

On Saturday morning October 29 I took a 400+ mile loop from Bismarck ND via Minot to Williston ND, down to Dickinson ND back to Bismarck.

Some sound bites from my tour.

1. A ethanol plant at Washburn ND is using waste heat from a coal fired electrical generating plant.

2. Wind generators to many to count, 100+ north of Washburn

on ND 83

3. Bright green Durum wheat fields as I approached Minot. (ND farmers don't farm acres, they farm sections)

4. Traveling west on ND 2, A farmer combining corn with 3 JD 9870 combines with 12 row heads, 4 semis and two grain carts. This could be a custom combiner.

5. ND 2 runs west about fifty miles south of the Canadian border

5. The durum wheat fields are more frequent as I traveled west. The bright green contrasted with the rest of the fall tan landscape.

6. About half way between Minot and Williston, West of Stanley ND, oil wells started to appear, as well as oil tankers.

7. Went by a ranch with a herd of twenty to thirty horses being rounded up by two cowboys on four wheelers.

8. Farmsteads seemed very well maintained with most appearing to have a fresh coat of paint.

9. Went by a abandoned farmstead with five fifth wheel trailers parked in a circle.

10. On the four lane ND 2 highway, speed dropped from 80 to stop and go in Williston due to oil tanker and construction equipment traffic.

11. To enhance the confusion there was a farmer with a nitrogen applicator, properly folded to 16 feet wide pulled by a quad trak 525 Case/IH.

12. Acres of temporary housing as ND 2 turned south to Williston.

12. Temporary housing was in many forms. From ten in a row bunk house size unit to a area with fifty or sixty ten by twelve individual travel trailers. These are called man camps. Entertainment is provided with temporary workers from Las Vegas, rumor has it.

13. At he Wall Mart store in Williston, as you enter there are pallets of winter ware for men. They say the turnover is several pallets a hour. Wall Mart reports it is the most profitable store they have despite a $20 per hour age for workers.

14. The McDonalds (fast food?) had a queue of about twenty people out side the store.

15. The vehicles of choice in Williston seemed to be Peterbilt or Ford F350 four door.

16. I was told not to take 85 south out of Williston as it was all broken up. Wrong! It was freshly paved to Watford City. Traffic was stop and go to 35 MPH with speed increasing as Watford was approached.

17. Filled up with gas in area. Unleaded $3.59. E-10 $3.39, E-30 $3.19 and E-85 $2.87. The E-85 was guaranteed to be at least 60% ethanol.

18. Some things seen on I94 headed toward Bismarck: two truck loads of generator powered lights for night work, all sorts of equipment for earth moving on trucks. Prefab housing of all sorts and pipe.

19. ND will be number one oil producer by 2014. The may be number one in energy production now with natural gas, oil, electricity, bio fuels and food.