We don’t know very much. This
was explained to me when I was promoted to a supervisory position at 3M fifty
years ago. A very wise engineering manager, my boss, explained it this way. He
took a 8 ½ by 11 inch blank sheet of paper and drew a 1/16 diameter circle. He
explained that if all the engineering knowledge was represented by the sheet of
paper, what I knew was inside the 1/16 diameter circle, and what I didn’t know
was on the edge of the circle. The message I got was while at the age of twenty
nine I didn’t know much, but if I learned what I didn’t know, I would now know more
about what I didn’t know.
This become very apparent a few
years later when I became Plant Engineer at the Hutchinson Magnetic Product
plant in Hutchinson Minnesota. A large part of my job included the heating,
cooling and ventilation of a plant with many chemical processes. I was very
unprepared and had to figure out what I didn’t know and learn fast.
This experience applies to many
aspects of the world energy situation. In my own situation, I am constantly
discovering more information about energy. In December, 2011, I wrote a rather vague analysis regarding
the Keystone pipeline. I have discovered new information that makes it even
less desirable.
The new information starts with
the North Dakota Bakken oil play. As more information is dispensed, North
Dakota has become the number two US producer of oil and is projected to exceed
Texas as number one. And this is not counting the Bakken oil play production
from eastern Montana.
I have also become aware of
automotive gasoline mileage improvements. Just recently Motor Trend Magazine
tested six cars with EPA rating of over 35 MPG. And more are coming in 2013. And a mention needs to be made about air
traffic management with GPS technology that reduces fuel usage.
Recently Koch Industries gave a
grant to Lawrence
Berkeley Laboratory to study global warming. As reported in the Economist magazine
web site, researcher Richard Muller determined global warming was in fact
occurring. Koch industries cut off funding. Major energy companies are in
denial about global warming.
Another energy reference is a web site of a study by
Argonne National Laboratory as shown on web site http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/354.pdf>
Slide 6. This is a 2005 report on energy that electricity has the lowest the
lowest “fossil energy ratio” (note 1).
So we get to the question of the Keystone pipeline. Extracting
gasoline from the oil sands of Canada requires more energy than energy in the
gasoline obtained. This information is published on several web sites. Some
have reported recovery as low as 30%, while Bakken crude, gasoline yield is at 60 to 70%. Another indicator is the price Koch Industries at Rosemount Minnesota pays for
Oil Sands crude at $40 dollars a barrel. This compares with to $80 plus being
paid for Bakken oil.
The Keystone pipeline would be a benefit to Koch
industries. They could buy more politicians for their portfolio. The Canadian oil sand dirty petroleum
would further decay our air quality, our quality of life and our economy.
With the Bakken crude oil, large supply of natural gas and continued efficiency gains we do not need the Keystone pipeline to supply US energy needs!
(see note 2)
Note
1. If we had a optimized electrical energy system of Solar, Wind, battery
storage and Natural gas, could easily yield a higher thermal efficiency than
corn ethanol (EtOH) and maybe higher than cell. EtOH.
Note
2. I reserve the right to change my mind if more data is discovered.
