Keystone Pipeline; Updated 7/9/2012

We don’t know very much. This was explained to me when I was promoted to a supervisory position at 3M fifty years ago. A very wise engineering manager, my boss, explained it this way. He took a 8 ½ by 11 inch blank sheet of paper and drew a 1/16 diameter circle. He explained that if all the engineering knowledge was represented by the sheet of paper, what I knew was inside the 1/16 diameter circle, and what I didn’t know was on the edge of the circle. The message I got was while at the age of twenty nine I didn’t know much, but if I learned what I didn’t know, I would now know more about what I didn’t know.

This become very apparent a few years later when I became Plant Engineer at the Hutchinson Magnetic Product plant in Hutchinson Minnesota. A large part of my job included the heating, cooling and ventilation of a plant with many chemical processes. I was very unprepared and had to figure out what I didn’t know and learn fast.

This experience applies to many aspects of the world energy situation. In my own situation, I am constantly discovering more information about energy.  In December, 2011, I wrote a rather vague analysis regarding the Keystone pipeline. I have discovered new information that makes it even less desirable.

The new information starts with the North Dakota Bakken oil play. As more information is dispensed, North Dakota has become the number two US producer of oil and is projected to exceed Texas as number one. And this is not counting the Bakken oil play production from eastern Montana.

I have also become aware of automotive gasoline mileage improvements. Just recently Motor Trend Magazine tested six cars with EPA rating of over 35 MPG. And more are coming in 2013.  And a mention needs to be made about air traffic management with GPS technology that reduces fuel usage.

Recently Koch Industries gave a grant to Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to study global warming. As reported in the Economist magazine web site, researcher Richard Muller determined global warming was in fact occurring. Koch industries cut off funding. Major energy companies are in denial about global warming.

Another energy reference is a web site of a study by Argonne National Laboratory as shown on web site http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/354.pdf> Slide 6. This is a 2005 report on energy that electricity has the lowest the lowest “fossil energy ratio” (note 1).

So we get to the question of the Keystone pipeline. Extracting gasoline from the oil sands of Canada requires more energy than energy in the gasoline obtained. This information is published on several web sites. Some have reported recovery as low as 30%, while Bakken crude, gasoline yield is at 60 to 70%. Another indicator is the price Koch Industries at Rosemount Minnesota pays for Oil Sands crude at $40 dollars a barrel. This compares with to $80 plus being paid for Bakken oil.

The Keystone pipeline would be a benefit to Koch industries. They could buy more politicians for their portfolio.  The Canadian oil sand dirty petroleum would further decay our air quality, our quality of life and our economy.

With the Bakken crude oil, large supply of natural gas and continued efficiency gains we do not need the Keystone pipeline to supply US energy needs! (see note 2)

Note 1. If we had a optimized electrical energy system of Solar, Wind, battery storage and Natural gas, could easily yield a higher thermal efficiency than corn ethanol (EtOH) and maybe higher than cell. EtOH.

Note 2. I reserve the right to change my mind if more data is discovered.